How to Spot the Future: Understanding Signals, Trends, and Weak Signals with Strategic Foresight
Discover how strategic foresight can help business and organization leaders identify signals, trends, and weak signals to stay ahead. This is the second article in a series about strategic foresight. Read the first article: Why Strategic Foresight is the New Competitive Advantage.
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If you’ve ever been caught off guard by a competitor’s bold move or a customer shift that seemed to come out of nowhere, you’re not alone. But here’s the truth: the future rarely sneaks up on us. It usually whispers first. The key is learning how to listen.
Consider this scenario.
In March 2020, I had just returned from a client trip in Europe. Within a week of my return, the COVID-19 virus had spread globally, and companies were sending employees home to work remotely. Based on these indicators, I immediately shifted part of my team at The Persimmon Group to focus on what the impact of remote work and the virus could have on our clients, markets, and how we work. My intent was to get ahead of our larger team, as well as clients, to figure out how these shifts would impact the team’s performance so we could consult on where work was headed, rather than where it currently was. From this effort came a lot of innovation, with eyes and ears turned on to hear what challenges our clients faced.
A surprise I didn’t see coming through this period was how the pandemic opened doors into the global marketplace for Persimmon. In retrospect, the initial indications were present—the move to virtual meetings, the widespread disruption experienced by many at the same time, and the widespread interest in learning and adapting to a constantly evolving environment. Yet, we were spending more time reacting to the needs of the day, rather than listening for the signals of opportunity. Like a surfer, we rode the wave into this global marketplace, but it could have been much smoother and intentional had we been watching the broader picture playing in before us.
To truly lead through change, we realized we needed more than quick reactions. We needed Foresight.
In Strategic Foresight, one of the most important practices we teach is Environmental Scanning—the discipline of identifying signals, trends, and weak signals that shape the future of your business. The challenge? Most leaders either overlook these insights—or misinterpret them.
Let’s break down the differences between these terms—and walk through a business example that shows how powerful early Foresight can be.
Signal, Trend, Weak Signal: What’s the Difference for Strategic Foresight?
Signal:
A short-term, observable event or shift. It’s usually local or specific, but it hints at a broader change coming.
Think of a signal like a news flash. It makes you pause and ask, “Is this the start of something bigger?”
Trend:
A long-term pattern that builds momentum and scale. It develops from multiple signals and begins influencing industries and consumer behaviors.
Trends are no longer subtle. They’re shaping business models.
Weak Signal:
The earliest and often faintest signs of change. Weak signals are easy to dismiss, but they’re often where future disruption begins.
These are whispers—quiet patterns that require curiosity, not confirmation.
Real-World Example: The Rise of Contactless Payments
Let’s explore how contactless payments evolved from a barely-noticed experiment to a global business standard.
Weak Signal (Early 2000s):
RFID and NFC technologies begin appearing in transit systems and some mobile devices. Most U.S. retailers ignore it.
Signal (2015–2018):
Mobile wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay emerge. Retailers are starting to adopt tap-to-pay. Customers begin to expect speed.
Trend (2020–Present):
COVID-19 accelerates demand. Contactless payment becomes a dominant norm. What was once a fringe tech is now expected.
Watching for Signals in Your Customers and Consumers
Weak Signals:
- Fringe behaviors that aren’t yet mainstream
- Odd requests that don’t fit your current model
- Customers using your product in unconventional ways
Signals:
- Measurable behavioral shifts
- Patterns repeating across touchpoints
- Adoption of alternative solutions
Trends:
- Confirmed by research and data
- Broad adoption and expectation
Example progression:
Some customers ask about text ordering (weak signal). Requests grow and you see increased demand for mobile checkout (signal). Eventually, mobile-first becomes standard in your industry (trend).
What Leaders Should Do to Apply Foresight
Want to start applying Strategic Foresight today? Here are four practical steps leaders can take to turn early signals into smart strategy.
- Engage the Front Lines: Give voice to those closest to customer behavior.
- Track Behavior: Use behavioral data—not just opinions—to guide insights.
- Build a Signal-to-Strategy Loop: Establish processes to capture, validate, and act.
- Cultivate Curiosity: Explore unusual patterns, even if they feel premature.
Build a Watch List
Next, identify key focus areas critical to your organization’s future, then use them to build a watch list that keeps you ahead of emerging change.
- Pick 3–5 strategic areas (e.g., workforce, customer tech, sustainability).
- Regularly monitor for:
– Weak signals worth exploring
– Signals gaining visibility
– Trends shaping action plans - Ask yourself: What do we see that others don’t?
By actively tracking signals across your watch list, you’ll be better prepared to adapt as disruption unfolds and set the stage to apply Strategic Foresight.
Next in the Series
The next Strategic Foresight blog explores how to turn insight into action—using tools like PESTLE, trend maps, and feedback loops.
Want to Take Foresight Further?
My Strategic Foresight Workshop is designed to help leaders like you build future-ready thinking into daily decision-making. You’ll learn how to scan effectively, interpret signals with precision, and apply foresight to your strategic planning. Contact me to learn more.
